osiks2w4otan
User
Dołączył: 12 Kwi 2011
Posty: 37
Przeczytał: 0 tematów
Ostrzeżeń: 0/5 Skąd: England Płeć: Kobieta
|
Wysłany: Pon 5:17, 18 Kwi 2011 Temat postu: nike climate max 24-79Bob Brinker Update because J |
|
|
Then in October 2000 Brinker recommended putting 20 to 50% of money keeps back into the market through the NASDAQ100 (QQQQ Bulletin because a counter trend rally antagonism saying his model had not given a buy signal. The QQQQ trade was a misadventure [link widoczny dla zalogowanych], but his long term model was correct to predict further disability because 2001 and 2002 were both down years for the markets.
All five of his root causes were BEARISH in January 2000. On the radio agenda at the time, he said he was not bearish, but the odds favored a ebb over the market going up extra than 5%. As such [link widoczny dla zalogowanych], he recommended reducing the equity delivery from 100% to 40% in his model portfolio numbers one and two. He too lowered his Model Portfolio III (which is a poised portfolio) equity allocation from 50% to 20%. In August of 2000, when the market was a morsel higher [link widoczny dla zalogowanych], he recommended taking distinct 5% out of equities for a 65:35 Equities-to-Cash things allocation.
Tight Money:Rising Rates:High Inflation:Rapid Growth:Over Valuation:
I deem none of Bob Brinker's "5 Root Causes of a bear market" are present today so Brinker will remain bullish. Before I examine the causes in elaborate, lets see at them in an historical perspective.
Read on
Bob Brinker Update for Sept 2006
Bob Brinker Update for Aug 2006
Bob Brinker Update 2006 0604
.Tight Money: He said the Fed was reducing M2 to slow growth - BEARISHRising Rates:He was prophesying higher long and short term rates to persist. This did not occur but it was - BEARISH for his model.. High Inflation: He said the CPI was approximating 3% and import amounts were up 5% which would further impact inflation. We didn't get high inflation, merely this was BEARISH for his model nobody the less. Rapid Growth: Real GDP growth was approaching 5%. Bob felt the FED would use rates to attempt and slow this. This was BEARISH and correct. Over Valuation: Bob wrote: "We believe valuation levels in the U.S. market are extended to the restrict." BEARISH
The markets bottomed in October 2002 and his model correctly gave him a bullish buy whistle within 5% of the S&P500 base in early 2003. Since returning to 100% invested in March 2003, Bob Brinker has correctly remained fully invested with not QQQQ-like side trips to hurt his extravaganza.
In January 2000, Bob Brinker exhorted taking 60% out of the market because:
January 14, 2007: In Bob Brinker's January 2000 Marketimer he issued his "Five Root Causes for a Bear Market."
[Note: Discuss Bob Brinker and his timing model in our Bob Brinker FREE Forum.
Now, let's look at the 5 Root Causes of a Bear Market and see where they stand today as of January 14, 2007:
.Tight Money. Economagic.com shows the growth of M2 Money Supply is assured at 5.38% with annualized inflation at 1.97%. This manner the Fed is increasing the real money afford by a healthy 3.41% rate. With M2 growing faster than inflation, I rate this as BULLISH even though Bob has been upset with the Federal Reserve for raising the Fed Funds rate upon 4.5% to its present 5.25%. Rising Rates: After the Fed raised rates to 5.25%, Bob said aboard the radio Saturday 06/03/06 that he thought the Fed had gone also distant and ambition must lower rates. Brinker says they should have stopped at 4.5%. The
The 5 basis causes of a bear market are
Post został pochwalony 0 razy
|
|